Sahm Adrangi Is No Lemming

The thing about lemmings is that they will follow, without thinking, the other rodents and, en mass, will commit suicide. When looking at markets, however, few likely realize that as everyone moves in one direction, following the latest trend, that eventually such a strategy may turn them into a unsuspecting lemming. With technology, a lot of investors have embraced the idea of putting their accounts on the equivalent of auto-pilot, letting price drops, or increases in price, trigger a buy or sell order.

Sahm Adrangi, founder of Kerrisdale Capital, believes that a somewhat antiquated approach to investing is likely, at least in part, a good partial strategy to take. Machines can tell us most anything, but having a look at a stock’s fundamentals will tell us a lot more about where the stock is now, how the company is being managed, and if it is in short or long-term distress.

Having made it his point to head in the opposite direction of all the soon-to-be lemmings, Sahm Adrangi takes a closer look at why a company is troubled and reflects on whether it can be salvaged. He then moves on to developing strategies for either investing in a company, which can be construed as holding long-term, or using every possible tool and toy in his derivatives bag to make out on a company in a temporary situation.

Kerrisdale Capital, founded by Sahm Adrangi nearly 10 years ago, was created on utilizing situations that were driven by an event. An event is something a company can most likely come back from, but a systemic malaise is another story. This firm would likely long-term invest in a systemic malaise situation if the company had balance sheet, or even pipeline, promise. Situational investing is having a short-term interest in making some money on either a reversal-of-fortune for a company, or a short-term run that is lacking legs. Shorts and options can come together and allow any investor to make good on every move a company makes, turning it into a money-making opportunity.

Sahm Adrangi looks for opportunities in some unusual places, which is also why he unearths ignored sectors harboring future values. He will never be counted a lemming.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sahm-adrangis-kerrisdale-capital-issues-negative-report-on-eastman-kodak-company-300594897.html

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KIJnG8kfW0

Is the Economy Headed for a Fall?

On February 5, 2018, venture capitalist and entrepreneur Shervin Pishevar went on a Twitter rampage that spanned 21 hours and 50 tweets. This sudden appearance was not just surprising for its randomness – Pishevar had been largely absent from public life since stepping down from Investment company two months previously – but for what he had to say about the state and future of the economy.

Buckle-Up, It’s Going to Be a Bumpy Ride

According to Shervin Pishevar, the strong stock market and sudden rise of Bitcoin are headed for a fall. He doesn’t predict that the crash of the stock market will be sudden. He’s talking about an aggregate, overall decrease of about 6,000 by the end of the year. The crash of Bitcoin will be more sudden and dramatic, but it will be able to make a comeback.

Several of these prophecies have already come to pass, and some seem to be looming on the horizon even to those who are unfamiliar with the markets and economics. Most notable among those predictions is the fall of Facebook. which recently had the highest one day drop in value of any corporation in the history of the stock market.

Shervin Pishevar bases these predictions on several factors that have been creeping up for a while and will converge around the same time. One is the overvaluation of stocks and bonds, the other is the artificial inflation of Bitcopin’s value. When investors realize this, the sell-off will lead to problems. Pishevar believes that the electronic currency will drop between $2,000 – $5,000 in value, but slowly regain much of it over a 24-month period. He is less optimistic about a recovery for the stock market, which has been Bullish to an unprecedented level for a record run.

Whether you have faith in Shervin Pishevar’s predictions, there’s no denying that he has been an influential and prescient voice in economics and investment for some time. His past record and foresight speak for themselves. Given the unsustainable trajectory of the markets these days, maybe we should listen.

 

https://www.brainyquote.com/authors/shervin_pishevar